Poker has become tougher, good opponents are  better and bad players are fewer. Achieving a consistently high win rate in MTT’s requires a greater understanding of the game from a technical perspective, and also a higher degree of professionalism. Edges are now fewer and more subtle then they have previously been. Below I’ve listed what I believe to be the key edges we can find in today’s game.

Preparation and concentration. I use to be able to make money by switching on the computer. Not possible anymore. I have to sleep well, not be hungover, have already exercised, already eaten, and have a clear mind from any other distractions. I also can’t be chatting to other people regularly whilst playing, and need to be serious about winning each and everyday. Because our opponents are now making fewer mistakes, mistakes we make are very very costly. Remember, anytime a decision is made, where taking another decision would result in greater EV, a mistake is made. Do not leave your computer unless you absolutely have to. Ensure you are mentally prepared for every session, and maintain that intensity and desire to win until the last tournament over.

Improved game selection Its no longer possible to just register and beat every MTT just because you are a professional and have a solid understanding of the game. Today, fields are often made up of a high percentage of professionals. If you are a losing player in the highest tournaments but beating everything else, you could still be making a loss because the higher buy-ins are more expensive. For example, if a player has a 20% ROI in a $100 freezeout, but a -20% ROI in a $500 freezeout, he needs to play 5 times the number of $100 freezeouts just to break even. It’s best to be cautious until you are consistently making a regular profit. Dive lower where the fish are. Higher ROI’s result in lower variance, longer winning runs, and less stress. Continually winning also increases confidence and confident people play better.

Playing fewer tables to find more creative lines to exploit opponent specific weaknesses. The days of mass multi-tabling to make the highest hourly rate appear to be over. Fewer players are now making huge mathematical errors which can be exploited by auto-piloting and using basic unexploitable lines. Its far better to make sure you are profiting from every table, by playing less and paying good attention to each and every game. Also if you get deep in many tournaments at once, why register for more? It is far more profitable to play optimally when playing for much higher equity, then to start new lower equity games.

Another positive outcome from playing fewer tables is that you are able to make more notes on, and get more accurate reads on opponents. As margins are tighter and edges are harder to come by, any edge at our table is hugely important. Also, playing fewer games should also allow a player to improve more quickly, because he is able to give more thought to each and every decision, to explore new lines and find the optimal line in any given situations. You also need to be playing less tables if you are to……………..

Use positional and post flop advantage effectively. Today, most players are familiar with basic push/fold strategy, and have reasonably solid pre-flop games.  The majority of tournament players are still really bad post flop, and like to play too many hands OOP.  If we are better then our opponent we want to play as many betting streets as possible, as each street offers an opportunity for him to make a mistake. Using positional advantage is key to finding this edge. Opportunities arise to call raises and outplay opponents post-flop. To do his we need good ranging ability, and a sound post-flop game. The best way to achieve this is by regularly playing low stake cash games to improving deep stack play. Practice, practice, practice and have the desire to study the game.

Continually learn and improve. As time passes, fewer and fewer players are able to stay ahead of the curve. You must actively evaluate your play, read forums, watch videos, speak to people who are better than you, and question the lines that you take. The ability needed to beat MTT’s is continually moving upwards, so a player who is to maintain a living from the game has to continually improve. It is worth remembering how much money can be made by becoming really good at poker, especially when you compare that to what you need to do to make much less money in a normal job.  Hard work is the order of the day

Obviously I was delighted to walk away with 3rd in what us one of the biggest online tournaments of the year. $269k is a huge score, and you have to be grateful if you ever get an online score like this. I was at the same time very disappointed to finish 3rd having had over 2/3 of the chips in play. At this point I maybe should have taken a deal, but I felt I would win and wound up getting unlucky three handed. I am generally happy with my performance, particularly the way I was able to adapt to the tournament conditions and the players I faced.

The WCOOP two day structure was very slow, allowing lots of play and the opportunity to see a lot of hands before I was under any pressure from the blinds and antes. It was very important to be patient and disciplined, and there was certainly no need to force the issue, as with a regular structure. I was gifted a great number of chips as people ran bluffs in an effort to accumulate chips too quickly. I was able to capitalise because I was still in the tournament having been extremely patient in waiting for the right spots. I also played for 16 hours straight on day one, so I was really pleased to have got through the day without surrendering to fatigue.

The structure also provided for essentially a post flop tournament. For the majority of the tournament I was over 100 bb’s deep rendering position even more important than usual. I successfully used peoples preflop aggression against them by calling in position and taking the pot on a later street.

Another key to this tournament was that I was able to single table Day Two, and also the latter stages of Day One. Over a long period of time I was able to observe patterns in my opponents, and to think about how I was going to exploit them. You need to have the flexibility in your game to out manoeuvre people in a variety of ways, and the confidence to execute a plan when you see an opportunity. However, to be able to do this, you need to be able to watch your table conditions and game-flow very closely in order to get your timing spot on. I believe observation, adaptability, and timing are 3 essential ingredients to defeating the stronger online fields. I would not have been able to do this if I were multi-tabling.

If you are backed by poker-allies, and would like to watch hand histories, please message me, and feel free to ask questions regarding any hand I played.

Neil

The most exploitable bubbles exist within large buy in tournaments with big pay jumps, where a high percentage of the field have won a satellite entry. We see these tournaments every Sunday. Satellite players are playing effectively above their bankroll and will want to finish in the money, These players resort to extreme risk aversion before big payout increases. I recommend finding low buy in players using OPR. For example, if a player’s ABI is $18 and the tournament cost $500 to enter, the first payout level of this tournament could represent their biggest ever score. These players will also make themselves known by discussing the bubble in the chat box, and timing out every hand. These players are our prime targets.

We aim to play against them just before the big pay increases. We play against them when we have them covered (i.e. we can eliminate them) and we leverage their tournament life on any hand we play. This may mean opening their bb if they are incapable of playing back without the nuts. We can also 3 or 4 bet them light if we think they will raise/fold. It could also mean representing any potential scare card that hits the board. In short, it means putting our opponents to the test when there is an unusually large amount of money involved for them.

If you are a medium stack the above options are open to you against the short stacks. We cannot pose the threat of elimination to our big stacked opponents, however, we be able to exploit the bubble in another way – by exploiting those big stacks that are aiming to exploit the bubble.  Anybody who is half decent with chips at this stage of a tournament will be very active. If they are anything like me, they will be entering pots with marginal holdings, and you should punish them for this.  To do this you must 1) be the first player all-in and 2) you must have fold equity when making your play (your opponent cannot be priced in).  In  situations against a hyper aggressive opponents I tighten my 2 bet range to the point where I am never raise/folding against them, and I lighten my 3 bet range where my stack size is right to satisfy requirements 1 & 2. Trapping with big hands can also be very effective verses overaggressive opponents.

What about if you are the short stack? Obviously the bubble isn’t going to be anywhere near as profitable for you. As a rule with an m of 3-6 I try to push when the other Short stacks are in the big blind. Their calling ranges will likely be tighter than usual. Never tighten your own calling ranges. I’d take a neutral (and possible negative) ev spot near the bubble, if doubling gave me the opportunity to be the bully boy.

If you can apply these strategies, I believe the bubble is a great opportunity to accumulate whatever your stack size, because the best investments in tournament poker, like business, are when risk aversion is the order of the day.

Next week we are going on a 4 day road trip to Rotorua and Taupo. Will be good to have some time off.