“I’m Cautious when others are greedy and greedy when others are cautious”. Warren Buffet was of course discussing his investment philosophy, but had he been talking about MTT strategy, he’d have been spot on. The ‘bubble’ is a unique period of a tournament where for many players survival and caution becomes a priority over chip accumulation. It’s human nature for players to tighten up in an attempt to guarantee a payday. This is precisely the time where chip accumulation should be your upmost priority. Why? Because given the right opponents and set of circumstances, chip accumulation will never be easier. And remember, it’s all about chip accumulation. All the money is in the top 3 places, and you either finish there or you don’t. So what and who are the situations and opponents that will provide easy opportunities to accumulate?

The most exploitable bubbles exist within large buy in tournaments with big pay jumps, where a high percentage of the field have won a satellite entry. We see these tournaments every Sunday. Satellite players are playing effectively above their bankroll and will want to finish in the money, These players resort to extreme risk aversion before big payout increases. I recommend finding low buy in players using OPR. For example, if a player’s ABI is $18 and the tournament cost $500 to enter, the first payout level of this tournament could represent their biggest ever score. These players will also make themselves known by discussing the bubble in the chat box, and timing out every hand. These players are our prime targets.

We aim to play against them just before the big pay increases. We play against them when we have them covered (i.e. we can eliminate them) and we leverage their tournament life on any hand we play. This may mean opening their bb if they are incapable of playing back without the nuts. We can also 3 or 4 bet them light if we think they will raise/fold. It could also mean representing any potential scare card that hits the board. In short, it means putting our opponents to the test when there is an unusually large amount of money involved for them.

If you are a medium stack the above options are open to you against the short stacks. We cannot pose the threat of elimination to our big stacked opponents, however, we be able to exploit the bubble in another way – by exploiting those big stacks that are aiming to exploit the bubble.  Anybody who is half decent with chips at this stage of a tournament will be very active. If they are anything like me, they will be entering pots with marginal holdings, and you should punish them for this.  To do this you must 1) be the first player all-in and 2) you must have fold equity when making your play (your opponent cannot be priced in).  In  situations against a hyper aggressive opponents I tighten my 2 bet range to the point where I am never raise/folding against them, and I lighten my 3 bet range where my stack size is right to satisfy requirements 1 & 2. Trapping with big hands can also be very effective verses overaggressive opponents.

What about if you are the short stack? Obviously the bubble isn’t going to be anywhere near as profitable for you. As a rule with an m of 3-6 I try to push when the other Short stacks are in the big blind. Their calling ranges will likely be tighter than usual. Never tighten your own calling ranges. I’d take a neutral (and possible negative) ev spot near the bubble, if doubling gave me the opportunity to be the bully boy.

If you can apply these strategies, I believe the bubble is a great opportunity to accumulate whatever your stack size, because the best investments in tournament poker, like business, are when risk aversion is the order of the day.