On Saturday 30th November I will be playing the most important poker game of my career thus far. Up for grabs is $500k in prize money that will be split between the six finalists. The prize structure makes for scary reading with first place taking home over 50% of the pool, $285k to be exact.

1st     $285k
2nd     $100k
3rd    $50k
4th    $35k
5th     $20k
6th    $10k

The major jump of $185k from 2nd to 1st should make for an interesting table dynamic. I would speculate that most of the players will be playing in a rather cagey manner, looking to move up the pay scale, in what is for all of them by far the biggest poker tournament of their lives. However, the correct tactic is obviously to shoot for 1st.

My game plan isn’t set in stone yet, and will depend a litte on the attitude of the other players, but Plan A is to play pretty tight in the beginning stage, but look to get into pots cheaply against weak players and hope to flop something big against them. Every spot will be like a bubble, and I think the first spot may be one of the bigger bubbles. No one will want to be knocked out first, there is obviously the issue that you double your money if you’re not first out, but in addition to that people will have a psychological barrier that they don’t want to go out first, just like no one ever wanted to be last at school sports day.

I expect this psychological aspect to affect the players in other ways as well. With the TV cameras, and millions of people due to watch them play, players will be very mindful of not wanting to appear like idiots. I don’t think you’ll see many loose calls on the river, and I don’t think you’ll see too many bluffs. In addition to this, I would suggest that in the early stages, if someone wagers all of their chips there is almost a 100% certainty that they will not be bluffing. Couple the psychological aspects of the TV coverage with the prize structure and I can see some very very scared poker.

With the table being shorthanded to start with, the dynamics will change considerably with each elimination. The difference between six and five isn’t so huge, but after that it’s not just the money jumps that will change the dynamics. With four players you are posting a blind every other hand, and likely seeing flops out of position (should you choose to) every other hand. Then with three players left the dynamics change further with you posting a blind 2 in every 3. These may seem like obvious assertions, but one of the beauties of this table is that the majority of the players have little experience of tournament poker, and even less so of shorthanded play. A key to shorthanded play is to play as little out of position as possible and as much in position as possible. I say this is a key to shorthanded poker, it is obviously a key to poker in general, but it’s importance increases at shorthanded tables.

As the blinds go up, I expect players to be playing a lot tighter than optimal. The structure includes antes, and I would be surprised if the players adapt properly to their presence. I will be looking to open more pots, and will also look for spots to resteal when I think I can make a player fold a better hand than mine.

If I make it to 3 handed with a stack I will up the agression some more, looking to pile the pressure on the two remaining players. The dream scenerio is for one of the three to be getting short, in this case the player second in chips will be mindful of the fact that they could fold to gurantee 2nd place and a heads up shot at $285k, this would allow me to exert even more pressure and it may even be correct to open push every hand.

Should I get heads up my gameplan will vary dramatically depending on my opponent and the stack sizes. Small ball may be the best way, but I may be forced into long ball and big bets preflop. I’m comfortable with any style. I just hope I have this decision to make come Saturday night.

Check out the gallery of the event at

http://www.flickr.com/photos/12891199@N06/